As talked about in yesterday’s piece on the Wildcat offense, Kentucky is breaking in a whole new coaching staff and a roster generally built from the transfer portal, so there’s a whole lot of “we’ll see” when it comes to what kind of product they actually put on the football field. In week 1 against Youngstown State, they won 45 to 13, but the Penguins did a little bit of damage to the Kentucky defense.
Youngstown’s QB threw for 243 passing yards at a 23/35 completion rate, picking up 20 total first downs and going 8/15 on third downs along the way. Now, the Wildcats totally blanked the Penguin rushing attack, but still, the secondary struggled a little in pass defense even against the overwhelmed FCS opponent.
Head coach Will Stein hired Jay Bateman away from Texas A&M to be his defensive coordinator. Bateman has a good bit of experience, but it hasn’t always been bright and sunny pastures for him. There seemed to be some philosophical differences between Bateman and Mike Elko in Aggieland, leading to Elko taking away his playcalling duties midseason and Bateman ultimately taking the less-than-lateral move to Kentucky. The general consensus from the Aggie faithful is that Bateman is an excellent recruiter but had consistent issues with run defense – particularly with linebackers and linemen all shooting gaps and leaving things open.
As far as their roster goes, the Wildcats aren’t quite as much of a total turnover from last year. Defensive tackle/Defensive end hybrid Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace returns after a nice season with 7 tackles for loss a year ago, and is now a veteran for the Wildcats. Beside him, nose tackle Jamarrion Harkless is a hulking 350-lb presence who was a solid player for Purdue a year ago.
At linebacker, Elijah Barnes was a former top 100 recruit just one year ago who didn’t get on the field for Texas and is now the starter for the Wildcats. Sam Green and Grant Godfrey join him in the linebacking crew as guys who were role players for Kentucky last year.
In the secondary, safety Ty Bryant returns as a multi-year role player, and he’s paired up with the senior Florida transfer, Jordan Castell, who was a former Freshman All-SEC player and a 3-year starter for the Gators. Their corners don’t bring as much experience, but transfer Hasaan Sykes was a very good cornerback for Western Carolina last year.
All in all, this is a defense with a couple of guys, Jordan Castell and Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, who we know can be solid SEC-level players. Past that, there’s a lot of former role players or transfers without much prior playing time who we think can be good, but really don’t have a lot of idea yet.
The Wildcat front will likely pose much more of a challenge to Alabama’s rushing attack than East Carolina did a week ago. They have some real beef up front. On the other hand, their poor showing in the secondary in week one, as well as very limited individual production in the pass rush, could lead to Keelon Russell getting some nice work in the passing game.
I don’t know – I know that there’s a lot of excitement for the Wildcats with their new coach, but I’m not sure I see that this squad in year one is going to get them off the mat. They’re fine, but I ultimately don’t think they have the horses or the scheme to hang yet.
I think Alabama gets somewhere around 32-35 points in this one.
The Fanduel Sportsbook has the Tide favored by 10.5 with an over/under of 49.5. With my prediction yesterday of about 17 points for the Wildcats, I’d say that the O/U is dead on, but I think the Tide will cover the spread.
I think there’s a good bit of trepidation around Kalen DeBoer going on the road early in the season… And that’s fair. But logically, I think Alabama covers.
