Week 9: 5-1
2025: 33-14
Mortal Lock: 7-2
Weekly Post-Mortem
Time for receipts from last week, which was quite awesome in what has been a great year excepting two weeks (and, if you got in late on Boise State at -21, you at least salvaged a push. I did not, however. Womp Womp):
Told ya’:
…you can’t overlook that WSU defense which has grown much saltier, despite their analytics. Pullman is also a very underrated tough little road venue.
Washington State -3.37
Verdict? 28-7. Washington State knew they’d be in a defensive game with the Rockets, and have to play physical up front. Mission accomplished: 299 yards allowed, and clamped down on 3 of 4 Rocket trips inside plus territory
What the?
I guess we’ll put the bonus game here. It was the only one that lost, and even then only if you got in early at -22
Last week we praised Nevada for their ability to play close with an inefficient defense and said the Wolf Pack were a good DD dog. We cannot say the same this week.
The Broncos are on a quiet mission of destruction: BSU -23.93
Verdict: 24-3. The Wolf Pack defense was again pretty good (for Nevada), and eliminated a lot of those BSU haymakers, but I’m still salty about this one.
Here are this week’s selections. All odds courtesy of FanDuel. You know the drill. Half a dozen games — one that good sense should steer you away from or that is too close to call, one we like, one we love, an underdog, a ginormous spread that data still thinks is feasible, and a mortal lock.
Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel, who has once again helped RBR keep the lights on. For current odds, follow this link.
Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:
Wake Forest +9.5 @ Florida State
Wake’s defense will keep them in every game. If there’s been a better job in the ACC this year than what Dickert has done in Winston Salem, I’ve yet to see it (though Tony Elliot at Virginia is a close second). The Deacons are sitting at 5-2 and could already be bowl eligible. In fact, they’re just 11 points from being undefeated. Their defense is likely to run into a tougher day on the road here, but play well enough to keep it within the margin of error. Of course, the last time we saw Norvell’s ‘Noles, they were losing on the road to the worst team in a conference full of mid and bad squads. Anything is likely.
Too close to call: Wake +9.89. You bet on a Dead Man Walking vs an up-and-comer at your own peril.
BONUS:
Ole Miss -12.5 v USCe: Which team do you reckon is going to have the greater emotional hangover, and can Kiffin avoid distractions and keep this team focused? It’s not only too close by the numbers, it’s the most toxic SEC game of the day for all sorts of very human reasons that are completely understandable, no matter who losses. (OM -12.33). It was about this time last year, with Ole Miss being the toast of the playoff committee, when the wheels fell off.
One We Like:
Vanderbilt +1.5 @ Texas:
The ‘Dores are going to have to run to get the win here. I don’t see Diego’s average arm, and the very average receiving corps, doing much against the Longhorns defensive backs. And while Vandy has made its living up front with a great rushing attack, their offensive line is probably outmatched by UT’s defensive line here on the road. Arch Manning is in the protocol, but it may not matter. They need a game manager, not a game changer. Texas can probably take the ‘Bama approach and force TOs while controlling the short- and intermediate passing game and simply out-talenting the ’Dores. Texas has a much better pass rush too. Still, we got to live in a world with a Top 10 Vanderbilt…and it was legitimately earned.
It sure as hell won’t be a pretty game though. Texas -4.46, and they’re right back in the playoff mix with a Top 10 win
Another One We Like
There aren’t any we actually love this week, so instead, we’ll go with another game we like.
Arkansas -4.5 v Mississippi State:
All year, the Bulldogs have done a great job rebounding and playing respectable after dropping winnable games. But they’re probably out of their depth in this one, and likely more dejected than usual after gacking up a 17-point 4Q lead over Texas. MSU won’t be able to rely on forcing the Hogs to be one-dimensional either. Bobby P can force his style of play on the ground or air. Both of these are dangerous teams for anyone to face lately. But it’s going to come down to whose defense is crappier and who you trust more offensively. The first proposition may be a tie — as well as Bully’s special knack for allowing soul-crushing plays — but Arkansas’s offense is better and better coached. That matters with an MSU team which still has tons of holes in its defense. Like Ole Miss / South Carolina, both of these dudes need to shake off last week’s hangovers. Petrino has more experience there as well.
Experience, more talent, home field gives the Hogs a TD win that could break scoreboards -6.55
Underdog With Bite
This week there was just one underdog that fell on the wrong side of the data divide. They should not be the ‘dog at all, in fact. Rather, our next contestant could rightly be favored (at least by the numbers).
Hawaii +3.5 @ San Jose State:
The Warriors problem the first half of the year was turnovers. A dozen in five games, and in that stretch UH went 3-2. They’ve had just two the last three games, and went 3-0, with two wins on the mainland. They can get a near-unprecedented third off Oahu with a win here. Their defense is better, the offense is better, and they’re playing better team ball than the Spartans. San Jose State can inflict some damage with their own passing game, but UH both runs and passes, and they can shut down opposing rushing attacks. Numbers like the visitors by a FG on the road.
Hawaii -2.34, and moving to 7 wins.
Ginormous Spread Worth Your While
The three biggest spreads of the week are all three-touchdown games, and all three are in the Big 10 (great conference, guys). So, rather than going in on the underdog home ‘Terps (who I think can keep it a bit closer than 21.5), or risking it with the Ann Arbor Mediocrities, we’ll go with the other one.
Penn State +20.5 @ Ohio State:
The Buckeyes live to out-talent the Nittany Lions. Just once in the last decade have the Nittany Lions matched up well with OSU, and even so, it took a home environment, a more talented defense, and a last second miracle blocked kick to get the W. This year’s Lions have a dirty secret: It’s not the Penn State defense you’ve come to expect. They can be gotten with explosive plays a la Oregon and UCLA, as well as with methodical attacks ( a la Northwestern). The Bucks do a little of both, and the Lions are without Drew Allar, average though he be. Where is Penn State finding points? On the road? Your guess is as good as mine…And 2000 Alabama is forever grateful to Penn State for replacing them in the Preseason Top 5 flameout hall of fame.
Buckeyes need a convincing name brand win; they’ll get it. OSU -22.09
Mortal Lock
We took a chance with the ACC last week (successfully so, thanks Narduzzi), and we’re doubling down in the Iffy category this week with a Big 12 game.
West Virginia +12.5 @ Houston:
This is the Mortal Lock for a few very good reasons: It’s the most data-discrepant algorithm projection vs. the spread that we see this week, and it’s easy to see why. There is literally only one thing that West Virginia does better than UH — return punts. That’s it. You can name every major, minor, or niche statistic and scenario, and the Cougs are better at it than the ‘Eers. Not only are the Cougars better, they’re often much better. Throw in an ‘Eers team playing without a quarterback, and on the road too? Like Cincinnati, Houston has also been stone cold spread killers this season to boot.
Home Cougs win, and I don’t think it’s even this competitive: Houston -16.00
Alright, that’s a fork in Week 10. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week. Good luck, and godspeed on the Devil’s thunder.
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
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