Week 8: 1-0
2025: 28-13
Mortal Lock: 6-2
Weekly Post-Mortem
Just one game last week, but it was a doozy. So, let’s see how well we nailed down Third Saturday. We’re going live a little early this week, because one of the games I want to feature is on tonight.
Time for receipts from last week:
Told ya’:
There are a variety of “hidden turnovers” that don’t show up in standard turnover margin analysis (though the modeling I use does include them). These are things like missed FGs, failed 4th down conversions, red zone stops…That sort of disparity tends to add up.
The data don’t think it’s marginal game either, being closer to a two-score final than one. The Vols will score more than anyone is happy about — and we’ll grouse about it after the game. But the offense will sparkle, ‘Bama’s big plays will be too frequent, and its secondary will force some bad looks (and decisions) by an average system quarterback.
Our Call:
Alabama -13.79, let’s say 38-24.
Verdict? 37-20. The Tide won the regular turnover battle, as expected. And it also won the one for hidden turnovers. Alabama gained a 4th down stop, held the Vols to 2/5 in the redzone, and UT was just 50% in goal to go. Those were huge.
What the?
None, really. But if you want to be hyper-technical, Tennessee edged into almost even in explosive plays once the game was out of reach and UT was stat-padding. And, as expected, the Tide mauled the Vols with a bevy of 18- and 20-yard plays.
Hard to be upset with that outcome. The math didn’t lie a bit.
Here are this week’s selections. All odds courtesy of FanDuel. You know the drill. Half a dozen games — one that good sense should steer you away from or that is too close to call, one we like, one we love, an underdog, a ginormous spread that data still thinks is feasible, and a mortal lock.
Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel, who has once again helped RBR keep the lights on. For current odds, follow this link.
Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:
Tennessee -9 @ Kentucky
The Vols absolutely have to have this one, after dropping games to rivals UGA and Alabama. On paper, they should get it as well. But there are so many intangibles that scare me off of it. Both teams are coming off crushing losses. Heupel is a bad road bet. Just the nuttiness of a rivalry game. And you cannot forget that the Wildcats tend to play much better at home. How much better are the ‘Cats at home? Inestimably so. They lost to Texas and Ole Miss by 10 points and two overtimes. If Kentucky were on the road, I’d be all over Tennessee. But they’re not, so I’m keeping my wallet firmly holstered, even though the numbers like Tennessee -11.14. And I would counsel you to do likewise.
I’m not your real dad or anything, but this seems like it’s setting you up for a heartache.
One We Like:
Texas A&M -2.5 @ LSU:
Nussmeier can actually have some success against this very suspect A&M secondary. Both teams are superb on third down defense and in keeping teams out of the endzone. But efficiencies do multiply here in favor of the visitors — A&M has the best lines in the SEC, and they’re the second most efficient offense inside the redzone too. When Aggie gets a chance for points, they cash in. Like Vandy, that tells you they don’t commit mistakes that beat themselves (Elko really should go ahead and dip to Penn State; this is not a good development). You hate to say that a game comes down to who’s more physical and who makes the fewest mental mistakes, but it’s actually true here.
Kelly’s seat warms way, way up in a superb defensive slobberknocker that exposes LSU line play that is simply butt. Aggie -5.25
Another One We Like
There are not many games we actually love this week, so instead, we’ll go with another one we like.
Washington State -1.5 v Toledo:
Wouldn’t be a kick in the pants for Wazzu to play two Top 25 teams to the death on the road, and then fall apart at home vs. a MAC team? They’ve gotten better each week, which is not something we thought we’d say after the first few games. If you take out that fiasco in Denton, Wazzu’s TO numbers go from one of the nation’s worst to just above average. That’s mattered a whole bunch: Just 5 TOs in their other 6 contests. That’s frankly what the Rockets have lived on, as well. And you can’t overlook that WSU defense which has grown much saltier, despite their analytics. Pullman is also a very underrated tough little road venue.
Washington State -3.37
Underdog With Bite
Underdogs have held sway the past three weeks, and it looks like this go ‘round, Vegas tweaked that a bit to stymie trends wagers. So, those good underdog games have turned into 50-50 prospects this week. But, there’s one that looks interesting, and it’s a razor-thin game too.
BYU +2.5 @ Iowa State:
The bottom line is that by the numbers, the wrong team is favored here. The Cougars are just better, and have been better, provided they don’t let a Holy War Hangover get ’em. ISU did have last week off and are playing at home. That militates in their favor, as does a slightly better ground game. But their secondary was exposed and abused by Colorado. And if we’ve learned anything about the Mormons, it’s that they can win ugly in a variety of ways. The data take this from ISU by just about a FG into PK territory, perhaps the Cougars by a point.
Very close game once more for BYU -.13
Ginormous Spread Worth Your While
Texas Tech -37.5 vs Oklahoma State
Behren Morton did not play last week in the Raiders desert upset, and it was amazing how much like Bad Ole Tech the Raiders looked. Turnovers, gacking up the ball on 4th down, McGuire coaching tight, defense failing to secure late leads. This team is just more confident with him. If his knee is cleared, then a pissed off Tech team is going to run it up at home. If he’s not, or if this line starts creeping up, skip it. I wouldn’t want to be the Cowboys in any case. It’s only a matter of how badly TTU jacks up the score here. The Pokes surrender almost 13 yards per completed pass, which is impressively awful.
If Morton plays, this could be a fifty-burger, Texas Tech -39.22
BONUS: If Morton does not play, or there’s bad news from practice today, then consider the following:
Nevada +22 vs. Boise State: Last week we praised Nevada for their ability to play close with an inefficient defense and said the Wolf Pack were a good DD dog. We cannot say the same this week. Nevada has gotten their ass kicked twice this season, and both times it has been by a team that looks like a whole lot like Boise. The Broncos are on a quiet mission of destruction: BSU -23.93
Mortal Lock
I just know I’m going to get burned on this, picking an ACC game in a mortal lock. Nevertheless…
Pitt -6.5 v NC State:
This one of those games that jumps out at you, because there’s no way NC State should be a sub-TD favorite on the road at Pitt. Not analytically, and not by trends: Narduzzi is one of the ACC’s best home covers. Lazy Dave Doeren is the rock-bottom worst in the ACC on the road. Pitt’s uncertainty at QB, where Holstein had been benched, is all I’ve got. Perhaps a Wolfpack offense that can keep it close? But that doesn’t even work because State’s secondary has been inflammable. Not even joking: Every other metric adores the Panthers at home in a great game per the numbers.
Don’t make me regret this, Pitt -9.06 #GoACC
Alright, that’s a fork in Third Saturday. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week. Good luck, and godspeed on the Devil’s thunder.
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
Just five bucks a month.
