Happy Friday, everyone. As you well know, Tennessee visits tomorrow night, and Alabama got some very good news on the injury front.
Alabama football changed the injury status of running back Jam Miller in a positive direction.
Miller is now listed as probable on the Thursday night availability report. Miller had been listed as questionable Wednesday.
Alabama’s top running back, Miller left the Missouri game late with a concussion.
Reserve receiver Jaylen Mbakwe was also upgraded to probable on Thursday. He’s dealing with a hand injury.
It seems wild that Jam would clear the concussion protocol that quickly, but if he hit all the markers then so be it. You know he wants to be out there for this one.
Your previews and predictions:
This is the most balanced offense Alabama’s seen. The Vols don’t need 200 rushing yards, they just need enough to make Alabama respect play action. Once that happens, Aguilar’s deep accuracy becomes the dagger.
If this were Alabama five years ago, laying 9.5 would make sense. This team has the shell of the old Tide — defense, ball security and physicality — but not the engine, which is why it lacks separation.
This version doesn’t have that same front seven to handle an offense that’s comfortable when it’s not rushed, leaving room for the Vols to play with momentum, create mismatches and capitalize on fatigue.
The market’s buying wins as a stat and ignoring the matchup. The numbers and the football itself say that backing Tennessee +9.5 is about exposing the gap between what Alabama wants to be and what Tennessee is. Don’t be shocked if Josh Heupel’s squad hands Bama a home loss.
In Tennessee, Alabama faces both extremes: the best scoring and total offense in the SEC, and the worst scoring defense in the conference. Joey Aguilar, Chris Brazzell II and the Volunteers have feasted on opposing defenses with more than 300 yards passing per game. And while Tennessee hasn’t seen a unit like Alabama’s second-ranked pass defense, the Crimson Tide hasn’t seen a passing game like the Volunteers’. But with Tennessee’s defensive struggles, and with the offensive run Alabama has been on, expect the Crimson Tide to reign and continue its home win streak in the “Third Saturday in October.” No. 6 Alabama 38, No. 11 Tennessee 31
A funny thing has happened to Alabama in SEC play. After playing in games that saw an average of 57.7 points in nonconference play, none of Alabama’s three SEC games have seen more than 45 points scored. While Ty Simpson has continued to make big plays when needed and looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the country, on the whole, the Alabama offense has been far choppier against SEC opponents.
That shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, but the drop-off has been significant. They’ve gone from a success rate of 48.5% and 4.27 points per drive out of conference to 43.8% and 2.70 in conference. They haven’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively, even with the addition of Jam Miller. I don’t know how well they’ll run the ball in this matchup, nor do I know how well Tennessee will run the ball, and that could be a much bigger problem for the Vols.
Tennessee fans were spiking the football over the Joey Aguilar for Nico Iamaleava swap early, and rightfully so. I still think Aguilar has performed better in this offense than Nico did, but Aguilar’s come back to Earth quite a bit. His touchdown rate in conference play has been nearly halved, while his interception rate has practically quadrupled. He’s been pressured far more often and has not handled it well. All of which leads me to believe that, unless there are touchdowns scored on defense or special teams, this game is far more likely to stay under the total than not. The Pick: Under 58.5
Alabama plays more defense than Tennessee does, but this game will open up in a hurry.
Both teams will hit the other with haymakers. The Vols will bring plenty of heat with their amazing pass rush, but Simpson will win his share of battles by hitting the one-look-and-go shots to counteract the backfield flurry.
Alabama will pull this off at home with that one defensive stop the Vols won’t get in the final ten minutes, but it’ll have to work a very, very long four quarters before lighting the cigars.
Alabama 34, Tennessee 26
This game is very important in the College Football Playoff chase. The winner greatly improves its chances of making the field of 12. The loser would have 2 losses, and probably no more room for error the rest of the season.
Ten straight times the Vols have traveled to Alabama, and 10 straight times they have watched rival fans lighting up cigars. These games have rarely been close. Only twice since 2005 has the Tuscaloosa meeting ended as a 1-score game. Tennessee is obviously in a much better position today than it was during the darkest times of the Nick Saban era, but winning down there is a big ask of this team… or any team. Since the start of the 2008 season, the Crimson Tide are 110-5 at home.
The Fearless Prediction needs to see Tennessee win a game down there before we pick them to win this game.
Fearless Prediction: Alabama 35, Tennessee 27
Simpson has gotten help from running back Jam Miller of late, though he is questionable for Saturday (concussion protocol). The defense got carved up on a couple of drives but controlled Mizzou for a large run in the middle of the game.
Tennessee is in pretty good shape, playoff-wise; the 5-1 Vols are projected favorites in each game after this. But their defense, so excellent last year, ranks just 78th in points allowed per drive. Luckily for the Vols, they’re 12th on offense. They are efficient via run and pass, and RB DeSean Bishop and WRs Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews are big-play machines. But if Simpson made key passes against Georgia’s and Mizzou’s defenses, it’s pretty hard to see Tennessee stopping the Tide when it counts.
Current line: Bama -7.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 2.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.1
I could see Tennessee putting 35-40 points, no problem. If they can do that, and also generate a couple of those game-changing defensive plays we’ve seen them make, well then, sign me up for an upset.
It’s just that it’s harder to depend on a strip sack and an interception of a deflection, than it is to rely on say, a secondary that routinely goes out and plays tight coverage across the board.
Tennessee could do it, I don’t have any doubt about that.
It really wouldn’t require the offense to do anything we haven’t seen them do to this point.
But it would most definitely require the defense to do some things we haven’t seen them come close to doing consistently for four quarters and I’m not willing to go out on a limb and predict for that to happen on the road, at night in Tuscaloosa.
TENNESSEE 38,
ALABAMA 41
That last one is from the Tennessee On3 site. I normally link longtime columnist John Adams here but they’ve got him behind a paywall now and I’m not sending a penny to a Knoxville based paper.
Conventional wisdom says that this one will be a high scoring affair, but as Fornelli notes above, there are some indicators that it might not be. Most of Tennessee’s confidence in their offense comes from scoring 41 against Georgia, but they were held to 17 over the last three quarters of that game after ambushing the Dawgs early. Aguilar is not a complete quarterback. If you can keep him from hitting you over the top, odds are you will have an opportunity to get off the field.
Tennessee’s run game may well be the key to how competitive this game is. Alabama has had some well documented problems setting edges at times, but over the past few weeks the run defense has held up relatively well. The secondary has been pretty adept at limiting the explosive pass plays, and there is no reason to think that Kane Wommack will be overly aggressive in this one.
Tennessee’s secondary has been awful all season with both starting corners banged up, forcing young players into action. If Gunner Stockton was able to throw for 304 yards on them, the sky is the limit for Ty Simpson. I think Alabama wins this one rather handily, let’s call it 41-23.
Of course, that is merely my opinion. Vote and give us yours in the comments.
Ty Simpson is hearing none of the Tennessee defense’s shortcomings, and that’s exactly what a leader should say.
Tennessee is at the top of the SEC with 26 sacks in six games, with Joshua Josephs and Tyre West leading the team with four sacks each. The Volunteers also have forced 15 turnovers, four of which have ended in scores.
“They’re going to cause chaos, they’re going to blitz, all types of stuff,” Simpson said. “So, we have to be on our P’s and Q’s and got to be disciplined in everything, right, because they are going to bring every type thing they got at us.”
But in Simpson’s mind, it’s not only about facing Tennessee’s defense. It’s about keeping up with what the Volunteers will bring offensively.
Deep down, he likes what he’s seen on film.
Ryan Grubb has identified a bad habit that Ty is trying to get rid of.
“It’s hard, to be honest,” Simpson said.
It’s mental. It’s mechanical. On each of Simpson’s throws, the quarterback slightly pats the football with his left hand before firing, whether it’s a short run-pass option pitch or a deep post.
It’s not something Simpson picked up either. It stems from his baseball background, Simpson says, harkening back to his days as a shortstop or an outfielder where he’d tap his glove before firing.
But it’s a habit Simpson feels he has to break.
“(Grubb) talks about the next level all the time and how DBs are a lot faster,” Simpson said. “The pat is just a half second quick enough to where they can break up a ball or they can intercept it.”
I don’t know if it really matters or not, and it’s debated in that article, but it’s great to see the self-scouting and attention to detail.
Last, Alabama basketball won a high scoring affair in last night’s exhibition.
Oats on what he learned about the team’s ability to close…
“I thought we didn’t do a great job on the defensive end closing. We did a pretty good job offensively. We didn’t turn it over and made free throws. We just didn’t get defensive rebounds and gave up threes late. So, offensively, we closed pretty well. Defensively, we’ve gotta find a group that can get stops and rebounds. We didn’t close the half well at all. I believe we gave up a 13-2 run to close the half. I think we were up 45-35 and then going down one like the last three or four minutes. So, we’ve gotta do a better job on both sides of the ball closing half, and defensively, we’ve gotta close the game better.”
Oats on what he saw from the freshmen…
“I thought Davion Hannah was really good in his minutes, played hard, especially after he kind of got a little rough spell. He led us in rebounding with seven in 16 minutes. Plays hard, makes athletic plays. I thought he stepped to the line, made free throws. Made a big three over there. So, really happy for him. Amari, the ball was in his hands quite a bit for a young freshman. Too many turnovers, but I thought he showed some flashes of some really good stuff. And London, London’s gonna be fine. He hit the one three, if I remember right. He didn’t get as many minutes. We’ve gotta get him to do a little bit better job on the glass. But I think he’ll come. I think he’ll get there for us.”
The second half looked better than the first, and Nate is obviously playing everyone in the preseason. But the turnovers and free throw shooting in the first half were rough, and the ball movement is going to need to get much better. Lots of one-on-one ball last night with guys standing around in the half-court.
That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.
Roll Tide.
