- Vanderbilt: REVENGED
- Tennessee: REVENGED
- Oklahoma: PENDING
As the Kalen DeBoer Black Hoodie of Death Revenge Tour rolls deep into fall, one more defeat from a season ago needs to be rectified. The Tide is playing well and the Sooners are improved from a year ago.
In September, Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Auburn. But then suffered their first loss by falling to Texas in the Red River Shootout. That was followed by a road victory at South Carolina. Then came the first home loss at the hands of Ole Miss. The Sooners rebounded with a surprising win at Tennessee. This past week, Okie was idle.
Having won eight straight games including four straight against ranked teams, the Crimson Tide (8-1) is one of the hottest teams in the nation. For Oklahoma (7-2), they have had no problems with away games winning all three games at another team’s stadium thus far (Temple, SC, Tenn). Though, the Sooners did lose the “neutral” game with the Longhorns that sure had a lot of burnt orange in the stands.
This past summer, FanDuel released several preview line spreads. At the time, Alabama was a -12.5 favorite. The new FanDuel opening odds have Alabama being favored by 6.5 with an Over/Under of 46.5.
OKLAHOMA
Having shed the mess that was quarterback Jackson Arnold to Auburn, the Sooners have a much more competent offense under Washington State transfer John Mateer. Early on, Mateer was looking like a strong Heisman candidate. However, a broken bone in his right (throwing) hand during a game against Auburn on September 20 took him out of action but only missing the Kent State game (plus a bye). Following the surgery, Mateer was remarkably back after just three weeks though he might have come back too soon for he has not been quite as dynamic.
The Sooners defense is a typical Brent Venables defense. That unit is 7th in the nation at yards allowed at 264.2 and 7th in points allowed at 14.1 ppg. Can they contain an Alabama team that is scoring 32.8 ppg?
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| Date | Opp | Close | Result | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/30/25 | Illinois State | -40.5 / 60.5 | Won 35-3 | Lost / Under |
| 09/06/25 | Michigan | -4.5 / 43.5 | Won 24-13 | Won / Under |
| 09/13/25 | @Temple | -23.5 / 50.5 | Won 42-3 | Won / Under |
| 09/20/25 | Auburn | -6.5 / 47.5 | Won 24-17 | Won / Under |
| 10/04/25 | Kent State | -46.5 / 53.5 | Won 44-0 | Lost / Under |
| 10/11/25 | @Texas | +2.5 / 44.5 | Lost 6-23 | Lost / Under |
| 10/18/25 | @South Carolina | -4.5 / 42.5 | Won 26-7 | Won / Under |
| 10/25/25 | Ole Miss | -4.5 / 52.5 | Lost 26-34 | Lost / Over |
| 11/01/25 | @Tennessee | +3 / 55.5 | Won 33-27 | Won / Over |
From a betting standpoint, Oklahoma has been a bit inconsistent, going 5-4 against the spread. They have been road dogs two out of three times and are not favored for this match-up with Bama. For Over/Unders, Okie went under for their first seven games. Vegas must have adjusted their assessments of the the Sooners as they have gone over the last two in a pair of shootouts. Oddly enough, those two O/U were the highest that they have had against Power opponents.
ALABAMA
Since the season opening defeat to Florida State, the Crimson Tide has been playing better. The offense has been efficient and the defense has been solid. However, they really have not blown any non-ULM team out of the water. Several games have been close late, but the Tide has been able to close them out.
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| Date | Opp | Close | Result | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/30/25 | @Florida State | -13.5 / 47.5 | Lost 17-31 | Lost / Over |
| 09/06/25 | Louisiana-Monroe | -34.5 / 49.5 | Won 73-0 | Won / Over |
| 09/13/25 | Wisconsin | -18.5 / 45.5 | Won 38-14 | Won / Over |
| 09/27/25 | @Georgia | +2.5 / 53.5 | Won 24-21 | Won / Under |
| 10/04/25 | Vanderbilt | -12.5 / 57.5 | Won 30-14 | Won / Under |
| 10/11/25 | @Missouri | -3 / 51.5 | Won 27-24 | Push / Under |
| 10/18/25 | Tennessee | -9.5 / 61.5 | Won 37-20 | Won / Under |
| 10/25/25 | @South Carolina | -12.5 / 47.5 | Won 29-22 | Lost / Over |
| 11/08/25 | LSU | -10 / 49.5 | Won 20-9 | Won / Under |
Alabama is 6-2-1 against the spread. The first non-cover was against FSU. The second was at Mizzou in which the Tide missed out on going over the 3 point spread by a single point. And then there was the South Carolina game that was a little too close for comfort. The Crimson Tide has covered all five times they have played at home
Bama has gone under five of the last six games. As mentioned, the offense is averaging 32.8 ppg, good for 35th highest in FBS. The defense is allowing 17.2 ppg, 13th best in FBS, behind only Oklahoma (14.1) and Texas (16.4) in the SEC.
MATH
With an over/under of 46.5 and 6.5 point spread, the final score could look something like BAMA 27, SC 20. Does that sound about right? Check back for any spread or O/U changes.
